作者题记：感谢白凯（Kathryn Bernhardt）、艾仁民（Christopher Isett）、彭玉生、余盛峰、周锡瑞（Joseph Esherick）、李放春、夏明方以及两位匿名审稿人给本文中/英文稿提的意见。 摘要：中国的“非正规经济”就业人员（即没有工作保障，缺少福利和不受国家劳动法保护的劳工）已占今天2.83亿城镇就业人员总数中的1.68亿，比正规就业人员要多出一倍半。正如国际劳工组织和世界银行等众多研究所指出的，规模庞大并不断扩展的“非正规经济”是世界发展中国家的普遍现象；而自市场化改革以来，中国已进入同样的社会经济状态。但是，今日的中国国家统计机构尚未真正正视非正规经济就业人员统计。其部分原因是当前的主流经济（以及社会）理论——即主要来自1960年代在美国盛行的“二元经济”理论、“三部门理论”和“橄榄型”社会结构理论——的误导。这些理论共同构成了1950和1960年代风行美国的“现代化”模式。本文扼要论述该模式的关键论点，进而回顾1970和1980年代发展经济学“革命”中有关学者对其所作的批评，以及后来新古典经济学在美国新保守主义领导下进行的“反革命”辩驳，重在揭示论争双方的意识形态化偏颇，并突出各自的洞见，提倡适当结合双方正确的见解，由此建立去意识形态化的理论观点，以助于理解今天非正规经济的现实。 China’s Neglected Informal Economy：Reality and Theory Philip C. C. Huang Abstract: The informal economy -- defined as workers who have no security of employment, receive few or no benefits, and are often unprotected by labor laws -- in China today accounts for 168 million of the total of 283 million urban employed, or 1.5 times the number of those in the formal economy. As numerous studies by the International Labor Organization, the World Bank and other entities have pointed out, large numbers and increasing proportions of informal economy workers is a phenomenon common to developing countries, and China with its marketizing reforms has become very much a part of this wider phenomenon. But the official statistical apparatus in China still does not gather systematic data on the informal economy. Part of the reason for the neglect is the misleading influence of mainstream economic and sociological theories, which have come from the “economic dualism,” “three sector hypothesis,” and “olive shaped” social structure theories that held great influence in the United States in the 1960s. Together those made up the prevailing “modernization” model of the time. This article reviews the core elements of that model, the “revolution” in development economics that followed it in the 1970s and 1980s, and the “counter revolution” from neoclassical economics that came with the rising ideological tide of Neo-Conservatism. The article attempts to separate out ideological biases from the genuine insights of the two sides, and argues for a balanced theoretical perspective that can more appropriately capture the realities of the informal economy today. Key words: statistical data, economic dualism, informal economy, development economics, neoclassical economics, social justice

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